India vs England: Why pace, not spin, may decide women’s Test in Mumbai

On any tour of India, you expect to face a trial by spin.
That is particularly true for England, who showed serious frailties against slower bowling during their home summer.
Australia off-spinner Ash Gardner took 23 wickets in the Women’s Ashes, including 12 in the Test match, while England struggled against Sri Lanka’s spinners in their T20 series defeat.
Head coach Jon Lewis has since held a spin batting camp in Mumbai and taken his squad to Oman to try and acclimatize to conditions they may face during the four-day Test that starts on Thursday at the Dr. DY Patil Sports Academy.
Spin will play a significant part in the game, especially with number-one ranked bowler Sophie Ecclestone in England’s side, but could seam and the pace bowlers decide the match?
Lewis highlighted the impact of pace at DY Patil during his squad announcement so BBC Sport has worked with data analysts CricViz to look at the numbers involved.
Fewer wickets, but a better average in WPL
There has only been one first-class match at the DY Patil Stadium, so we have looked at the games in the Women’s Premier League (WPL) in 2023 and the 2022 Indian Premier League (IPL) played on the ground.
There is the caveat that the pitch does not have the time to deteriorate in a T20 game, like in a Test, but pitches are reused frequently in franchise tournaments so spin should play more of a part as it progresses.
The graphic below shows the wickets and average by pace and spin bowlers across the 2023 WPL at the DY Patil Stadium and the Brabourne Stadium, the only two grounds used in the tournament.
While spin still took more wickets at the DY Patil (66 to 61), pace accounted for 48% of wickets. At Brabourne that was down to 30%.
It is bowling average (runs conceded per wickets) where you can really see how tricky pace can be to face at DY Patil.
On average a pace bowler took a wicket every 19.6 runs they conceded, compared to 26.8 by spinners. If you think about that in a Test match and the need to take 20 wickets, that could save a side a significant amount of runs, and – with this game only being four days – potentially time too.
Over the past decade, pitches in India have changed, largely due to the talent pool in the men’s team with the likes of Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Shami among the world’s best, making pace bowling more prominent than it once was.