Supreme Court judges are to rule on whether the Scottish government has the power to hold another independence referendum. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants a referendum to be held on 19 October next year. But the UK government has so far refused to give formal consent for the vote to go ahead. The court was asked to clarify whether the Scottish Parliament can legislate for a referendum without that consent. Its decision is due to be delivered at 09:45 on Wednesday, with the result potentially having huge implications for the future of the UK. Pro-independence rallies will be held in several Scottish towns and cities after the ruling is announced, and Ms. Sturgeon is also expected to give her response to the decision. What will the Supreme Court ruling mean for indyref2? Will there be another independence referendum? The first minister has previously said she wants to reach an agreement with the UK government similar to the one that was in place ahead of the referendum in 2014 when Scottish voters backed staying in the UK by 55% to 45%, She has said this would ensure the result is seen as being legitimate and is recognized by the international community, and has accused Westminster of having no respect for democracy by opposing a referendum. But a series of prime ministers – including Rishi Sunak – have argued that the country’s focus should be on dealing with issues such as the cost of living crisis and the war in Ukraine rather than independence and that the result of the 2014 referendum should be respected. There have also been suggestions that the pro-UK side could boycott a referendum even if the court rules in favor of the Scottish government.
This ruling could have a huge bearing on the debate about Scottish independence and on whether there is to be a referendum next October. But it is also not going to put the issue to bed on its own. Regardless of the outcome, an almighty political row is going to follow the case. A Scottish government win would pave the way for a referendum which in their own words would be “advisory” and “consultative”. There would still need to be negotiations with Westminster to actually deliver independence, and Nicola Sturgeon would still want both sides to sign up to a full-throated campaign to make sure the result is internationally recognised. If the UK government wins, Ms Sturgeon is not going to simply give up on independence. She has been clear that she would paint such an outcome as another roadblock in the path of Scottish democracy, and would hope that the perceived unfairness of being denied a say would prompt a wave of public support. There would also be significant questions for UK ministers about how exactly the constitutional question is ever going to be resolved, given it continues to dominate Scottish politics. Judges can rule on what the law tells us, but in the end only politicians can settle this issue once and for all. The case was referred to the Supreme Court by Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain KC, the Scottish government’s top law officer. Ms Bain said she did not have the “necessary degree of confidence” that Holyrood would have the power to pass legislation for a referendum without UK government consent. She said the issue was of “exceptional public importance” and asked the UK’s top court to provide a definitive ruling. The court heard two days of legal arguments from both the UK and Scottish governments last month, with its ruling being delivered just six weeks later – earlier than many experts had expected. Issues relating to the constitution, including the union between Scotland and England, are reserved to the UK Parliament in London under the rules that created the devolved Scottish Parliament in 1999.
The UK government told the court it was therefore clear that “legislating for a referendum on independence would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament”. It lawyers also urged the court to refuse to rule on the case, arguing that the question is purely hypothetical at this stage because Holyrood had not yet passed a referendum bill. But Ms Bain said any referendum would be “advisory” and would have no legal effect on the union, with people simply being asked to give their opinion on whether or not Scotland should become an independent country. Recent opinion polls have suggested that Scotland is essentially split down the middle on the independence question, but with a very narrow majority in favour of staying in the UK. Ms Sturgeon has said she will use the next general election as a “de facto referendum” if the court ruling goes against her, with the SNP fighting the election on the single issue of independence.
