The UK is set to be one of the worst-performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It says the UK economy’s performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia. The IMF predicts the UK economy will shrink this year, although this is a small upgrade from its last forecast. It also warned of a “rocky road” for the global financial system.
Although the UK is forecast to have the worst economic performance this year, the IMF’s latest prediction is slightly better than its previous expectation of a 0.6% contraction, made in January. IMF researchers have previously pointed to Britain’s exposure to high gas prices, rising interest rates and a sluggish trade performance as reasons for its weak economic performance.
Forecasts are made to give a guide to what is most likely to happen in the future, but they are not always right. For example, previous IMF forecasts picked up fewer than 10% of recessions a year ahead of time, according to an analysis it conducted of recessions around the world between 1992 and 2014. Responding to the latest IMF’s predictions, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “Our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.
“The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone.” But Rachel Reeves, Labour’s shadow chancellor, said the estimates showed “just how far we continue to lag behind on the global stage”.
“This matters not just because 13 years of low growth under the Tories are weakening our economy, but because it’s why families are worse off, facing a Tory mortgage penalty and seeing living standards falling at their fastest rate since records began,” she added. Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said the forecast was “another damning indictment of this Conservative government’s record on the economy”.
A number of forecasters think the chances of a recession in the UK this year are declining. An economy is usually said to be in recession if it shrinks for two consecutive three-month periods. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility now expects the economy to contract by 0.2% this year but avoid a recession. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey also said recently that he was “much more hopeful” for the economy, and it was no longer heading into an immediate recession.
